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Effetti elettorali

Dopo la buriana delle elezioni comincia il paradosso degli assestamenti nazionali. In Germania, dopo il forte calo dei consensi nei confronti della coalizione di governo diretta dalla Merkel, la SPD (socialisti), ha chiesto una verifica agli alleati della CDU (cristiani democratici). La forte crescita dei Verdi e dei Liberali pone difficili problemi per l’avvenire della coalizione. Forse ci sarà un rimaneggiamento governativo.

In Austria il governo del popolare Kurz si è dimesso dopo che un partito minore, Jetz, ha presentato una mozione di sfiducia a causa degli scandali che hanno travolto un partito di destra che faceva parte del governo. Le dimissioni di Kurtz non sono dunque un effetto delle elezioni europee ma le hanno precedute. Comunque, dal loro risultato dipenderà l’atteggiamento austriaco nell’Unione.
In Grecia, Tsipras e il suo partito sono arrivati secondi dopo Nea Demokratia, un partito di destra che ha sempre contestato l’austerity imposta da Tsipras e dall’Unione europea. Tsipras non ha intenzione di governare con un’opposizione popolare maggioritaria rispetto all’attuale composizione del Parlamento greco. Nuove elezioni nazionali sono dunque imminenti. Dipenderà da queste se la posizione greca sarà o no a fianco dei Paesi sovranisti.
A Cipro le elezioni europee hanno prodotto un miracolo, perché, nonostante le due comunità turco-cipriota e greco-cipriota siano politicamente divise, hanno eletto un turco-cipriota al Parlamento europeo in rappresentanza di tutta l’isola.
In Francia, il Rassemblement National di Marine Le Pen ha sorpassato di un punto percentuale Renaissance, il partito del Presidente Macron. La Le Pen ha chiesto subito nuove elezioni ma non sembra che Macron voglia rischiare, per un solo punto percentuale di differenza, di perdere se non la presidenza, almeno la maggioranza di cui dispone all’Assemblea nazionale. Per quanto duramente contestato dai gilet jaunes, è prevedibile che resterà in sella, anche se piuttosto ammaccato.
In Italia c’è, invece, una situazione paradossale, con un’opposizione in pratica inesistente e due partiti al governo, la Lega e il Movimento 5Stelle. Al Parlamento il Movimento ha la maggioranza mentre dopo le elezioni europee, la Lega ha quasi doppiato i consensi rispetto al Movimento. Il paradosso è che le elezioni hanno confermato il governo in carica, ma la maggioranza parlamentare è diversa da quella popolare espressa dalle elezioni europee. Sia Di Maio sia Salvini confermano che ciò non avrà alcun effetto sensibile sul governo giallo-verde, ma ciò è piuttosto improbabile.
Fin da ora si possono tirare alcune conclusioni di massima.
1 – Le elezioni europee hanno registrato una maggiore affluenza di votanti rispetto al passato. Di Europa si è parlato molto di più che in passato ed è evidente che l’Unione rappresenta una grande realtà politica nel continente, nel bene e nel male che sia.
2 – La contesa elettorale non è stata indolore. A parte il caso un po’ farsesco del Regno Unito, c’è stato un profondo rimescolamento delle carte. L’ascesa dei sovranisti, per quanto minore del previsto, dei verdi e dei liberali, soprattutto in Germania, inaspettata, e il calo vistoso dei consensi nei confronti della CDE e della SPD tedesche, confermano l’irrompere di forze nuove con orientamenti diversi volti a incidere sulla politica europea.
3 – La sconfitta elettorale di Macron, in Francia, e la diminuzione dei consensi al governo della Merkel, a Berlino, indeboliscono il tradizionale asse franco-tedesco che ha retto il timone dell’Unione per quasi mezzo secolo. Le cose sono cambiate ed è comune la percezione che anche nell’Unione si debbano apportare dei cambiamenti. I partiti tradizionali soffrono di senescenza e sempre meno corrispondono alle attese del popolo europeo.
4 – L’alleanza auspicata da Salvini tra i sovranisti potrà non avere il successo immaginato, ma sarà comunque un polo di attrazione per tutte quelle formazioni parlamentari non di politica tradizionale che auspicano dei cambiamenti di sostanza nelle relazioni fra l’Unione e i Paesi membri.
5 – In realtà, nessun Paese membro vuole uscire dall’Unione. L’esempio della Brexit e dei rischi potenziali dell’isolamento economico, con una guerra commerciale in corso fra Stati Uniti e Cina, fa paura a tutti. Inoltre, sono stati innegabili i benefici derivanti dalla libera circolazione delle merci, dei capitali, dei servizi e delle persone all’interno dell’area comunitaria.
6 – Le prime avvisaglie dello scontro fra il nuovo e il vecchio si avranno per la nomina del Presidente della Commissione. Per la successione al molto contestato Juncker, espressione del capitalismo finanziario internazionale, i Popolari propongono il tedesco Manfred Weber, i Socialdemocratici, l’olandese Frans Timmermans, Liberali e Verdi del gruppo Alde, la danese ambientalista Margrethe Vestager. Quest’ultima rappresenta la discontinuità rispetto al passato.
Sarà interessante capire come si orienterà il governo italiano in materia, la prima prova del fuoco dopo le elezioni europee. Quale sarà il nome proposto dal nostro governo per il ruolo di Commissario?

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