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Dazi Usa-Cina, allarme Fmi

Per Christine Lagarde, direttore generale del Fondo Monetario Internazionale (Fmi), in un quadro che vede “l’economia globale mostrare segni di stabilizzazione” e nel quale “si prevede che la crescita si rafforzi” la “strada da percorrere rimane precaria e soggetta a diversi rischi al ribasso”. Lagarde lo ha affermato a conclusione del G20 dei ministri delle finanze e dei governatori delle banche centrali a Fukuoka, in Giappone, specificando che “la principale minaccia deriva dalle continue tensioni commerciali. L’Fmi ​​stima che i dazi Usa-Cina, comprese quelli incrementati lo scorso anno, potrebbero ridurre il livello del Pil globale dello 0,5% nel 2020 ovvero circa 455 miliardi di dollari statunitensi”. Questo, per Lagarde, “potrebbe avere una significativa incidenza negativa sulle attese di andamento economico” .

“Un secondo rischio viene dal fatto che, con tassi di interesse molto bassi, i livelli del debito stanno aumentando in molte economie avanzate e i mercati emergenti rimangono vulnerabili a un improvviso cambiamento delle condizioni finanziarie. E tutto questo in un momento in cui lo spazio di politica monetaria e fiscale è più limitato rispetto al passato”, prosegue Lagarde e aggiunge: “Per mitigare questi rischi, ho sottolineato che la prima priorità dovrebbe essere quella di risolvere le attuali tensioni commerciali, compresa l’eliminazione delle tariffe esistenti ed evitarne di nuove, mentre dobbiamo continuare a lavorare per la modernizzazione del sistema commerciale internazionale. Questo sarebbe il modo migliore per i responsabili politici di dare maggiore certezza e fiducia alle loro economie e di aiutare, non ostacolare, la crescita globale”.

“Allo stesso tempo, nella maggior parte dei paesi, la politica monetaria dovrebbe continuare ad essere dipendente dai dati e accomodante. La politica fiscale dovrebbe bilanciare attentamente crescita, debito e obiettivi sociali. E le riforme strutturali, dall’apertura dei mercati alla promozione di una maggiore partecipazione delle donne nella forza lavoro, dovrebbero essere utilizzate per gettare le basi per una crescita più forte e inclusiva. Se questi tipi di misure fossero attuate congiuntamente, il Fmi stima un aumento del livello del Pil del G20 del 4% a lungo termine”.

“Naturalmente – sottolinea poi Lagarde – è necessaria anche un’azione congiunta decisa in molti altri settori: nella tassazione internazionale, per garantire un sistema globale equo, sostenibile e moderno; nel settore finanziario, per garantire un sistema aperto e resiliente basato su standard internazionali concordati; e nell’area del debito, in particolare per i Paesi a basso reddito, in cui la cooperazione è essenziale per garantire trasparenza e sostenibilità. Abbiamo anche discusso dell’importanza di lavorare insieme per affrontare gli squilibri economici globali, che sono diventati sempre più concentrati nelle economie avanzate”.

“Inoltre, guidati dalla presidenza giapponese del G20, ci siamo concentrati sulla questione dell’invecchiamento della popolazione, sulle sue implicazioni politiche e su come potremmo aiutarci a vicenda in questo ambito vitale. Per sostenere questo dialogo, sia sui dati demografici sia sugli squilibri globali, il Fmi ha offerto nuove ricerche e analisi a livello transnazionale”, ha aggiunto Lagarde, affermando in conclusione che “complessivamente, questo incontro ha contribuito a far progredire l’approccio del G20 su questioni chiave e ha preparato il terreno per il Summit dei leader a Osaka il 28-29 giugno. Vorrei ringraziare il Vice Primo Ministro Taro Aso e il Governatore Haruhiko Kuroda, le autorità giapponesi e il popolo giapponese per la loro eccellente organizzazione e la calda ospitalità. Non vedo l’ora di tornare in Giappone alla fine di questo mese”.

Nel comunicato finale del G20 finanziario viene ribadito inoltre che “la crescita globale sembra stabilizzarsi ed è proiettata verso un incremento moderato quest’anno e nel 2020”. Ma questa rimane, tuttavia, “bassa e rimangono rischi orientati verso il basso. Soprattutto, si sono intensificate le tensioni commerciali e geopolitiche”. “Continueremo – è l’impegno enunciato – ad affrontare questi rischi e ad essere pronti che intraprendere ulteriori azioni”.

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